The Bitcoin price (BTC) has been stuck in the $9,300 to $9,500 range for seven days with low volatility. Traders expect that the major crypt-currency will see a large price movement in the short term. However, major traders are divided on whether Bitcoin Future will see a resumption of the downward trend by checking the $7,000 mark in the coming weeks or whether it will finally break the $10,500 mark.
Due to the uncertainty in the market since mid-May, various data and technical analysis present sufficient arguments for both bullish and bearish scenarios. For example, cryptomoney trader Satoshi Flipper said that in a highly indeterminate price range like this, balanced trading should remain neutral and prepare for either scenario:
„Everyone seems to be confident about the next direction of BTC. Many think we are aiming for a high 9.8k range, others are convinced we are going down. Some think about consolidation, others about distribution. Only one thing is certain: no one knows in which direction. I prepared for both.
Many traders seem to be taking a similar approach, especially in the futures market, by remaining net neutral with hedge positions. This shows that Bitcoin is at a crucial point, and investors are preparing for a spike in volatility after nearly 45 days of low-volatility trading.
The Bitcoin bullish scenario
The main short-term bullish scenario for Bitcoin is a break above $10,500, as has been the case since May. BTC risks seeing a triple peak, with two previous peaks in October 2019 and February ending at $10,500.
The case for the triple peak is invalidated if Bitcoin remains above the key support levels of $9,400 and $9,000. Therefore, whether or not Bitcoin remains in the $9,300 to $9,500 range over the next few weeks may decide the medium-term price trend for BTC. Michael van de Poppe, a full-time trader at the Amsterdam Stock Exchange and a contributor to Cointelegraph, explained:
„The crucial level was maintained and we are back in a narrow range. As long as the $9,200-9,250 remains, I suspect it will continue. Next job; to break through and pass the $9,550-9,600. If we do, the road to peak prices can begin. Acceleration above $10,250-10,500 to $11,500.
But Bitcoin has struggled to break above $9,550 after four attempts in the last six days. Declining spot market volume along with decreased volatility remain the biggest obstacles to a proper breakout. A Bitcoin trader known as Ethereum Jack said they have been waiting for Bitcoin to recover since early June. He explained that the absence of a rally increases the likelihood that a large price movement is imminent:
„Looking closely at the market today. A few weeks ago I believed that the market would recover and if so, in the next few days there would be a cap on BTC. In the absence of a rally, I do not rule out the idea that it is a continuation pivot and either way the market seems poised for a move.“
Bullish traders are leaning towards last week’s range as a „continuation pivot“. The term is often used to describe a phase before a prolonged rally occurs. If the stability of the Bitcoin market is a continuation pivot, then BTC could see a recovery above $10,500 to higher resistance levels such as $11,500. A key factor amplifying Bitcoin’s upward argument in Q3 2020 is its most recent difficulty adjustment.
Bitcoin investors are up even when the price of Bitcoin is below $10,000
On June 17, Cointelegraph reported that Bitcoin’s mining difficulty increased by 14.95% – the largest margin since January 2018 and the first increase in more than two years. When the difficulty of mining Bitcoin increases substantially in a short period of time, it can shake up over-leveraged miners. It makes it more expensive to mine BTC overnight, typically causing a drop in the hash rate and an increase